What next for Yes East Kilbride?

When Yes East Kilbride was launched in the spring of 2013, today’s circumstances could hardly have been foreseen.

Speakers: Drew Campbell of Scottish Greens, Naimh Conlon,
Dennis Canavan, Chair of  Yes Scotland, Linda Fabiani MSP,
Carolyn Leckie of Women for Independence and Alan Bissett
of National Collective

Both locally and nationally, the referendum campaign was hard-fought. Yes East Kilbride brought together a wide range of people, some from political parties others unconnected with party politics. The Yes campaign featured

colour,

Yes EK Committee Member Ali Salamati gets into the
atmosphere at the Edinburgh Rally September 2013

comedy,

Image Courtesy: Greg Moodie / Funhouse Graphics

culture,

Aye Inspired National Tour visited East Kilbride Civic Centre

and voter engagement.

One of many canvassing sessions across East Kilbride.
This one in The Murray, one of many Yes voting parts of EK

Yes projected a positive vision of Scotland’s future. By contrast, the aptly named Project Fear talked Scotland down and used powerful voices from British and Scottish establishments to generate fear about the allegedly dire consequences of a Yes vote.

The vilest tactic we heard of locally was the targeting of OAPs, with canvassers, including bussed in Labour MPs, advising them a Yes vote threatened their pension. The lies told to pensioners in East Kilbride mirrored the dishonesty of the official No campaign and the pro-UK media.

These headlines sum up much of the No campaign - a denial to Scots
of any risks associated with a No vote in spite of all evidence to the contrary

In the dying weeks of the campaign, despite the level of fear engendered by the No campaign, it became clear the momentum was to Yes. Yes picked up in the polls and a range of people, some from within pro-UK organisations, including the Labour Party, and some previously reluctant celebrities, speaking out for Yes. In panic, the unionist parties unveiled a vaguely-defined compromise, backed by the UK Government, which should have been observing electoral purdah, which they had undertaken to observe.

Just two days before the vote, the Daily Record carried a Vow endorsed by The Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister, and the Leader of UK Labour, which said:

“The Scottish Parliament is permanent and extensive new powers for the Parliament will be delivered by the process and to the timetable agreed and announced by our three parties, starting on 19th September.”

In his final speech before the vote, David Cameron said:

“'Business as usual’ is not on the ballot paper…The status quo is gone. This campaign has swept it away. There is no going back to the way things were”

On 18 September, having been subject to eighteen months of unrelenting scare stories and the offer of a new constitutional settlement, on the largest ever turnout in UK electoral history, Scots voted No. Analysts suggest that significant components in the No victory might have been as follows:

• A gender divide – with a higher proportion of women than men voting No,
  (which might be related to:-)

• An age factor, with as few as a third of voters aged 65 or over voting Yes
• A socioeconomic factor, with less well-off voters more likely to vote Yes than those in more comfortable circumstances,
• A national identity factor, with voters born elsewhere in the UK half as likely to vote Yes as voters born in Scotland, and self-identification as Scots, British, or a mix of the two, also influential
• A ‘silent minority’ factor, with voters who usually abstain turning out to vote, and more likely to vote No.

These findings are in line with what we found locally.

The following table provides a partial analysis of the referendum count for East Kilbride, based on ballot box samples taken at the count and information on turnout at a local level published by South Lanarkshire Council.

These results exclude postal votes, which were handled in a way that means they cannot be allocated to local areas. However, even a significant No lead among postal voters in the town would not have stopped the result in East Kilbride being a victory for Yes. The silence on this issue from local No campaigners confirms that they are aware of this result.

Where do we go now?

At a post-referendum meeting, the Yes East Kilbride Committee agreed to recommend that Yes activity continue on a cross-party and non-party basis.

The ‘Yes’ message developed a strong set of identifiers during the campaign. It was allied to positive messages about social justice, hope, aspiration, and community. It created strong cross-party and non-party engagement. The post-referendum ‘bounce’ in membership of the pro-Yes political parties is a very strong signal about the way Scots responded to the campaign.

By contrast, now that the referendum is over, ‘No’, is a dead message. As became clear during the campaign, prolonged use of the Project Fear approach identified its supporters as negative about Scotland, and the message gradually lost its effect. Apart from a bunch of thugs who took over George Square in the aftermath of the referendum, no one is rushing to associate themselves with the winning side of the referendum.

Having kept out of the way during the campaign, Scotland's
unionist extremists re-emerged in the aftermath of the vote

For many supporters of pro-UK parties, especially Labour, there seems to be a distinct unease at the way the referendum was won and at events since the result was announced. It is now clear that Scotland’s future has been placed in the hands of politicians whose priorities are firmly elsewhere.

The widely divergent actions of those from the No camp following the referendum demonstrate just how shallow were the principles that bound the campaign together. In the immediate aftermath, David Cameron hoist Ed Miliband on the issue of English votes for English Laws in return for supporting a strengthened Scottish Parliament.

Within hours of the result being announced,
the Prime Minister turned the tables on
Labour and the LibDems

Not to be out-Toried, even by the Tories, Jack Straw proposed that Scots lose any special status within the UK – with our right to national self-determination denied, as is the position adopted by Madrid in relation to Catalunya and the other regions and nations of Spain – a legacy of Spain’s fascist past.

A right to national self-determination is enshrined in the UN Charter of
Human Rights, but Jack Straw wants to follow post-Franco Spain and
abolish it in the UK

The positivity of the ‘Yes’ strategy and the panicked response of the No camp left a legacy on which we can build in the aftermath of the referendum and in the longer term.

In essence, the referendum isn’t over until the promises made in the run up to the vote are delivered. The starting point is the commission headed by Lord Smith.

The Smith Commission

The UK Government has appointed Lord Smith of Kelvin to convene a cross-party commission and to make recommendations for further devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament. As part of this process, the UK Government will produce a Command Paper, to be published by 31 October setting out its thinking on the way forward. Draft clauses for a bill to be laid before the UK Parliament will be produced by 25 January. 

The description given by the Smith Commission website is that "this process will deliver more financial, welfare and taxation powers", for the Scottish Parliament. Whether the process will deliver anything to match the panicked rhetoric of the No campaign in the days before the vote, or the expectations of the people of Scotland, as demonstrated in this Panelbase poll (opens an Excel table), only time will tell.

East Kilbride's MSP, Linda Fabiani, has been appointed as one of two SNP Commissioners. The Scottish Greens, and the three pro-UK parties have also appointed Commissioners. Details of all commissioners can be found here.

This is the timetable being followed by the Commission:

• 10th October 2014: Deadline for political parties to submit their views on more powers as part of the Smith Commission’s engagement programme. 

• 31st October 2014: Deadline for civic Scotland to submit views on more powers for the Scottish Parliament to the Smith Commission. Publication of a Command Paper by the UK Government

• 30th November 2014: Heads of Agreement with recommendations for further devolution of powers, to be agreed by cross-party talks and a “wider engagement programme”. 

• 25th January 2015: Publication of draft clauses.

If you want to keep up with the activities of the Smith Commission, their website is here.

Submissions, including by individuals, can be made to the Commission here. 

So, where next?

An earlier version of this paper was presented at a packed meeting of Yes activists in East Kilbride on 7 October. People were able to share their memories, thoughts and analysis of the campaign, and comment on the outcome and on the way forward for Yes East Kilbride.

Well over 100 EK residents turned out on 7 October to discuss a way forward

It is clear that there is a demand for Yes East Kilbride to continue to provide a vehicle for cross-party and non-party input to the post-referendum process. Three areas of activity have been identified and these have been written into the following revised statement of objects for the group:

1. To monitor implementation of the commitments made by the UK Government and the No campaign, notably the undertaking to strengthen significantly the economic and legislative powers of the Scottish Parliament.
2. Through research, campaigning, and advocacy to enable the people of East Kilbride to hold local elected members to account for delivery of the referendum commitments and to contribute to consultation processes feeding in to legislative action to implement these commitments.
3. To promote and defend the sovereign right of Scots to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs, enshrined in the 1989 Claim of Right.

One thing is certain, the people now flocking to Yes are doing so with no illusions about who is, and (yes, this means you Scottish Labour), who is not on the side of the ordinary people of Scotland. 

As Alex Salmond said as he announced his forthcoming resignation as First Minister and SNP Leader:

"The real guardians of progress are not the politicians at Westminster, or even at Holyrood, but the energised activism of tens of thousands of people who I predict will refuse meekly to go back into the political shadows."

 With almost 100 new members signing up to Yes East Kilbride on the night, it is clear that the people of East Kilbride will be well represented among Yes activists of the future.