Wednesday 16 April 2014

Three strikes and you’re out for No camp

As the sun returns to Scotland for this momentous year, the shape of the campaigns raging around the independence referendum are revealed. Those campaigning for a No vote have found it an unhappy experience.

At a national level, the No campaign has faced growing criticism over the negativity of its campaign; this stems from those backing the union trying to face two ways. David Cameron talks of the UK as a ‘family’ and of his emotional attachment to it. But, he does this from London and when he does come to Scotland, he refuses to debate Scotland's future with Scotland's First Minister.  In the meantime, his government argues that, far from joining a family, Scotland ceased to exist in 1707 and only Westminster has any claim on the inheritance of 300 years of union.

This stance first came a cropper on the issue of the UK's £1 trillion plus of national debt. The Scottish Government pointed out that claiming all the benefits of union, including use of the currency, also meant taking responsibility for the debts. The people who loaned the money to the UK Government also weighed in; they demanded clarity over who would pay them back. Chancellor George Osborne had to issue a statement, supported by the Governor of the Bank of England, confirming that the Treasury accepted its responsibility for 100% of the debt if Scotland votes Yes.

Failing to learn its lesson, the UK Government then sent George Osborne to threaten Scots with the loss of the pound in the event of a Yes vote. This time, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, cheered him off. In a ‘Yes Minister’ kind of gesture, the senior Civil Servant at the Treasury provided a letter for Osborne to wave. Having made his statement and refused to answer questions, Osborne retreated south. As it became clear that Scots had reacted badly to this episode, Osborne was attacked for his ‘Sermon on the Pound’ having been a monumental error.

Fortunately for the Governor of the Bank of England he had stayed clear this time – in fact he had been up a week earlier to talk about how a currency union might work, during which he stressed his admiration for one of the authors of the currency union proposal. Then, one of Osborne’s Tory colleagues confirmed to the press that a Yes vote would be followed by agreement on a currency union. Trying to save face, the UK Government tried to link the currency union to Scotland keeping Trident on the Clyde. In his last speech to an SNP conference before the referendum, Alex Salmond rejected this proposal as unacceptable and confirmed that Trident would go.

Shifting from high finance to low blackmail, the Tory Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond, joined in. He arrived in Glasgow to lecture workers in the Clyde’s defence contractors on their prospects after a No vote. Knowing he has no credibility with shipyard workers, many of whom already face redundancy, he spoke to the workers at Thales – formerly Barr and Stroud, the specialist optical suppliers founded in Glasgow over 100 years ago.

Members of the workforce reacted angrily to what they described as ‘emotional blackmail’ from a man known for serving redundancy notices on soldiers still serving on the front line. The fact that Thales is 40% owned by the French Government appears to have escaped the hapless Defence Minister and his advisers.  It seems all his visit has done is emphasise how badly London, with its focus on financial services, has mismanaged the industrial base of Scotland and the rest of the UK.

The longer the referendum campaign has run, the more the central argument of the No campaign has unraveled. Scotland is not ‘Better Together’ in the union, it is Westminster that is is better with us in the union. Its politicians see issues solely from this perspective, which is why they are now panicking. With Ed Balls supporting Osborne’s currency bluff, it clearly doesn't matter who forms the UK Government in 2015, Scotland’s interests will not be well served.

By contrast with the disastrous No campaign, Scots are being won over to the Yes side, not by arguments about what we have done in the past, but the potential we have for the future. The resulting swing to a Yes vote can be seen from this graph.

Source TNS UK

While the proportion of people who are undecided is almost unchanged, those supporting No have dropped by 4%, and those supporting Yes have risen by 5%. This augurs well for continued progress by a Yes campaign that is delivering a positive message here in East Kilbride and in communities right across Scotland.

The visit by these out of touch ministers making threats that don’t stand up to scrutiny does the job of the Yes campaign, by demonstrating the importance of cutting the London link and letting Scotland take its own decisions.

Please show your support and sign the Yes Declaration:

I believe it is fundamentally better for us all, if decisions about Scotland's future are taken by the people who care most about Scotland, that is, by the people of Scotland.

Being independent means Scotland's future will be in Scotland's hands.

There is no doubt that Scotland has great potential. We are blessed with talent, resources and creativity. We have the opportunity to make our nation a better place to live, for this and future generations. We can build a greener, fairer and more prosperous society that is stronger and more successful than it is today.

I want a Scotland that speaks with her own voice and makes her own unique contribution to the world: a Scotland that stands alongside the other nations on these isles, as an independent nation.


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